Of a Lifetime

I always could count on futures
That things would look up, and they look up
Why is it so hard to find balance
Between living decent and the cold and real

-Jimmy Eat World, Futures

The next sliced bread is here.  It is 2009 Bordeaux.  Go elsewhere for your colloquial descriptors.  There is no denying this is going to be a good one.  The big boys in the industry are playing with the fates of all of the latest Cabs and Merlots sitting in barrels along the banks of the Gironde.  Now is the time for the talk of futures wherein your investment in the best wines now could theoretically pay dividends when the wines actually arrive in consumer's hands in two years.  Of course, there are risks to any investment, and this one has its fair share of naysayers.  However, ten years ago there was a vintage considered equally as riveting, exciting, and legendary as many that had passed.  Those who decided to invest in their 2000 Bordeaux futures have reaped returns many, many times greater than if they would have tossed their money at the stock market.  The top fourteen wines have returned 300% on investment in the last ten years (source: Wine Spectator).  So, why not buy futures in a great vintage?

Perspective, Materialism, Greed
Similar to other consumer products, wine has a release date and everything before it cannot quench your thirst while the anticipation builds.  But unlike the last volume of 'Harry Potter' or the next iPhone, once you get your hands on it, you cannot enjoy it until an uncertain and undefined time wherein the bottle is ready.  I remember anticipating the 2004 Brunellos with desire, and after I got my hands on them and laid them down, I pass by bottles of them without thinking twice.  In this, wine is a particularly materialistic thing; having it for the sake of having it.

Mortality and Ageism
I heard someone muse that buying futures is only for the excessively wealthy and the foolish young.  The former has the assets to amass purchases by the case without having to think twice, and the later does not have the experience of failed investments and reputable vintages to know any better.  Of course, the foolishly young also have the opportunity to age alongside of the wines and experience their maturity.

Capital
Wine is expensive.  The most expensive wines are even more expensive.  Takes money to make money.  Sure, the top fourteen wines of 2000 have appreciated immensely, but I would guess that one would have to have at least $50,000 to throw around to be able to pick up all of those wines in case quantities.

The Next Great Vintage
Every year brings it's all-star vintage somewhere in the world.  Sure, there may not be extreme highs and lows to compliment every calendar year, but the sun usually shines the right way on someone.  Phenomenal to legendary vintages have landed upon worldwide regions throughout the last decade.  Bordeaux itself has produced refined and great collectible wines from 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, and soon 2009.

What of the Last Great Vintage?
Many will argue that while people throw money at the 2009's, people who are still holding onto the 2005's and 2000's will bleed them into the market at phenomenal prices.  This leaves the prudent and patient wine drinker lapping up these more ready-to-drink vintages while people are saving money to pay for wines that they pretty much have to lay down for another decade or so.

Remember the Overhead
Do not forget what it costs to store and sell wine properly for investment: energy for constant temperature control, facilities for storage, shipping costs, moving expenses, and the commission or premium that the eventual buyer absorbs.  This is usually not deeply considered when trying to realize the potential of any investment gain on wine.

Good vs. Great
A wonderfully generous man celebrating his 80th birthday with his fine old Bordeaux told me that buying some of the best wines on off-vintages allowed him to not have to spend all the money in the world to drink fine, mature wine throughout his life.  While everyone focuses on the 2000's, 2005's, and 2009's, some of the best wines from good-not-great vintages ('01, '03, '08) will last with great quality and durability at much more reasonable prices.

Currency Flux
The economic pressures are the strongest opponent of investing in fine wine.  If the economy suffers between your orders today and their arrival in two years, the wines could be released at better prices, similar prices, or become more available in the long run.

But Is This Right for ME?
If you were to tell me to pile fine wine in my cellar and ask me to walk by it every day for a few years and not taste it, I would not be entirely convinced that I could do so.  I may pick up a few bottles of 2009 futures on the hope that I can get some delicious wines at prices that will not be available when the wines are released.  However, asking me to mature wines for the enjoyment of someone else is not my M.O.  If it is yours, there may be some money in it for you.